What are Dune: Part Three's Awards Chances?
Updated: Oct 29
We are now 52 days away for Dune: Part Three releasing in theaters on December 18th, which meant today was the day to drop the third and final trailer. The film continues to look amazing, being the final film in director Denis Villeneuve's trilogy and an adaptation of Dune: Messiah. I am someone who has read the book series, and I can happily say that this film should be wildly different in tone to the first two. Where the first two films are about prophecy and a hero's journey, the third is a complex look at our leaders. All the signs show that this film will be a major success, but what does that mean for its awards chances?
Weirdly, the prior two Dune films have been massive hits with audiences but never major awards contenders. So far it's been unable to break from the more block-buster sci-fi trend into the Academy's hearts. Today I thought it would be a good time to examine Part Three's awards prospects, from the technical categories to acting nominations. I'll take a look at the prior history for the past two films before examining each possible category this time around and giving some of my personal predictions at the end. Just 52 more days everyone!
History
As mentioned earlier, it's been a bit of a bumpy ride at the awards shows for the Dune franchise. The first film was certainly the more successful of the two, receiving ten nominations and winning six: Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score (Won), Best Sound (Won), Best Editing (Won), Best Cinematography (Won), Best Production Design (Won), Best VFX (Won), Best Costume Design, and Best Makeup/Hairstyling. Even though the second film was received with even more positive word of mouth, it went down to five nominations and only two wins: Best Picture, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Sound (Won), and Best VFX (Won). Sure, this is an amount of nominations and wins that many films would dream of, but it still feels short for a film that captured the cultural zeitgeist as much as Dune has.
The most egregious snub may be Denis Villeneuve never even being nominated for his directing. This is such a large-scale franchise and it's hard to imagine there's many directors out there that could have brought it to life as well as Villenueve has. Dune has also never received a single acting nomination. The obvious choice is Timothée Chalamet in the lead role, taking Paul Atreides on the journey from young heir to true leader of people. The role of Paul is felt throughout every character and moment of the universe, so it feels bizzare that Chalamet has not even been looked at. Even past him, there's never been a chance for someone like Rebecca Ferguson or Javier Bardem. This feels like a franchise that would really capture the hearts of the voters, but for some reason has not so far.
Technical Categories
Now that we look at Part Three's chances, it feels like a pretty safe bet that all the technical categories are their best opportunities. We've seen that the last two films have been recognized in almost all of these non-acting places, and I don't see why this iteration should be any different. Which ones are the most likely? I feel like we have to start with Hans Zimmer's score, as it is a legendary composer on a franchise that is so dependent on its sound. Who knows if the score will be as impactful as the first, but this feels like a slightly weaker year for score so far (outside Ludwig Göransson at the top for The Odyssey) and a nomination with the potential to jump to a win feels possible. The expectation is that this will be another large-scale visual masterpiece, meaning that VFX and Cinematography feel like pretty easy guesses as well. For the remainder, it'll be competitive but you'd have to think it follows a certain path to the first two films. A strange wrinkle is that Part Two lost the Editing, Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup/Hairstyling (plus score, but we already discussed that) that the first installment received. Screenplay feels like one it'll get if the film is received in a similar way to some of the other large contenders, but the others probably depend on how impactful they really are into the main story.
Acting Nominations
One of the worst snubs I feel Dune has been victim of over the years has been the complete ignorance towards the cast. It's hard to imagine a film franchise with this many characters could ever get every single one perfect, but that is genuinely how I feel after reading the book series. Not only does Chalamet feel like he has a leg up because of all the momentum around him at awards shows at recent years, but also because Paul's arc in this movie should be the most complex of all three films. It really breaks down him as a character and will be a role where he's playing with loads of different emotions at once. Actor is stacked this year already, but this will be one to keep an eye on if the film receives incredible word of mouth. An interesting new factor into this discussion was the report from this week that Zendaya would be submitted into Lead Actress rather then supporting. It appears that Chani's arc in the film will be very large and also mostly apart from Paul, meaning that WB's team believes she can stand on her own. This is a really bold decision that has the chance to work out really well, especially since Best Actress is pretty weak after Moore/Navarrette/Wilde.
The chances don't stop there, but definitely start to feel less likely. Returning cast members would be Florence Pugh, Jason Mamoa, and Javier Bardem. I'm frankly not sure of any of their material is enough to push them up into an acting nomination, but I will keep an eye on Pugh - certainly one of the fastest growing names in the industry and her mud-soaked appearance in the promo really interests me. Robert Pattinson is going to already be contending for Primetime and The Odyssey, which feel like more of a priority then what he has going on here. Still, a main villain role that features many different layers (book readers know) could always gain some momentum. Lastly would be Anya Taylor-Joy stepping into the role of Alia Atreides, the sister of Paul and aptly named "Abomination". This is a really violent and feisty role for an actress that hasn't really ever been looked at for awards outside of The Queen's Gambit. I'm not sure yet that this will be the one, but I could see it being a dark horse if she stands out above anyone except Chalamet/Zendaya.
Best Picture or Director?
The last two categories would be one that's evaded Dune for years and another that feels like a lock. Although Best Picture is the most competitive it's been in years, I see no reason that Part Three should miss out if it is a big hit. The first two received this honor and unless there's a large falloff, I'll think this one will follow that trend. The Denis Villenueve situation is a bit bizarre. Although he is one of the most prominent directors out there, especially for sci-fi, he's only received one nomination for Arrival and zero wins. As I mentioned earlier, this is a world that has got to be almost impossible to bring to life. The book series features so many pages and arcs, yet somehow we are entering a third film where the franchise is so beloved to non-book readers. You would have to hope that the last two films have been building to Denis blowing the voters' minds with this third film, and the years of snubs will finally be relieved here. Will it take a big tonal shift like Part Three is expected to provide? The third film in trilogies usually giving voters more notice? It'll be a competitive year as always, but it feels like a good a time as ever for him to breakthrough.
Final Thoughts and Predictions
This feels like somewhat of a monumental moment for sci-fi film. If this third installment can both stick the landing and sweep the awards, it would open the doors to many other projects in the future. When analyzing Part Three's chances, many have looked towards what is considered the best trilogy of all time: Lord of the Rings. The first two films were mostly shut out at the Academy Awards, with then the final film being nominated for 11 awards and winning all 11 in a historic moment. Now it is important to note that those 11 wins didn't feature a single acting category. Still Dune very well could follow a similar path, again because of its status in sci-fi history. There's certainly a long way to go, and the film has to be as good as we expect, but I'm thinking it should be a pretty good year for Dune fans. However, I would also bet it will split between The Odyssey almost the entire night. Here would be my predictions for its awards nominations and wins:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet
Best Actress: Zendaya
Actress in a Supporting Role: Anya Taylor-Joy
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): WIN
Cinematography: WIN
Costume Design
Film Editing: WIN
Makeup and Hairstyling: WIN
Original Score
Production Design
Sound: WIN
Visual Effects: WIN
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