Golden Globes Reaction: What Does It Mean For Oscars Race?
- Alex Schlerf
- Jan 12
- 7 min read
The 83rd Golden Globe Awards took place last night, awarding the best in both television and film from the past year. There's a few awards shows remaining on the road to the Oscars in March, but the Globes are the last big precursor before we get to the biggest show of them all. Although it's not a perfect indicator, the Globes always gives us a good temperature check of where we are with the races for Academy Awards.
I thought it was a perfect time to not only share some of my reactions to the Golden Globes results, but also talk about what it means for the Academy Awards in a few months. We know from past years that it isn't a perfect science, mostly due to the Globes' usually rogue voting and strange categories, but it still gives an insight into what voters are thinking. With nominations expected later this month, here's my analysis on what we can expect in the coming months.
Supporting Actor is Wide Open
One of the main things we learned on Sunday night was that putting any money on a prediction for Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars would be a bad idea. Early in the race it appeared that one of Sean Penn or Benicio Del Toro, both for One Battle After Another, would win the award and nobody else had any chance. Del Toro has won most of the awards leading up to the last few weeks, so he started to emerge as a favorite over Penn (who hasn't really been campaigning at all). But then the Critics Choice awards shocked everyone with awarding a win to Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein. Maybe it was expected that the Globes would provide a clear favorite of those three, but instead they awarded Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) and continued to throw predictors in an absolute panic. Even past that, you've got an awards darling in Hamnet/Paul Mescal and the great story of Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly.
All of this is to say that the race feels completely up in the air. I think we can expect that the five nominees will come from that group of six, assuming there's no Miles Caton (Sinners) or Delroy Lindo (Sinners) surprise, but guessing the winner is going to be hard work. At the end of the day, it depends how you are valuing the different awards wins. Del Toro basically swept the smaller awards circuits. Penn has the pedigree. Elordi is on fire right now as a candidate and won at Critics Choice. Skarsgard won at the Globes and the film he's in seems to be perfectly crafted for acting wins. Mescal is a part of a Best Picture candidate and Sandler is beloved. For right now, I'm leaning towards Skarsgard. They'd view him as more due than Elordi, Penn won't be campaigning at all and I worry Del Toro's performance won't get the same respect outside of the smaller awards shows. However, the reality is that nobody really knows right now and it'll probably be that way all the way to Oscars night.
Madigan/Taylor in a Close Race
This entire awards season for Best Supporting Actress has basically been a flip flop between Amy Madigan (Weapons) and Teyanna Taylor (One Battle After Another). There's been certain blocks in the road, like Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) earning a few wins and the Sentimental Value ladies being early favorites, but those two have gained the majority of the wins throughout this entire season. Madigan has come completely out of nowhere, especially coming from a horror film that hasn't received any awards love outside of her. Although it is a great performance, there also may partly be a legacy thinking behind this. Madigan has been loved in the industry for many years but never received awards recognition and this may be the voters attempting to remedy that. My concern with Taylor's campaign was always seeing how the voters judge her lack of screen time for the majority of the film. Frankly, it hurt my perception of her performance. She was great in the time she had, but it came so early and so short that it didn't really leave a lasting impact after I left the theater. Clearly most awards voters have not agreed with that sentiment, as she's been crushing the lower circuits and just got the big win at the Globes.
With Madigan winning at Critics Choice and Taylor winning here, it's really a tie right now in terms of who is favored. Most would consider Critics Choice as a bigger indicator for the Oscars, meaning that Madigan is probably still the favorite even after last night. Still, any big win for Taylor like this will help the conversation. When it comes to the Oscars, both are locks to be nominated, but the win will come down to how voters value two very unique performances.
Chalamet and Buckley Seem To Be Locked In
Now for two races that felt over before they even began. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) once again took home a lead actor award last night, continuing his dominant performance so far in awards season. Although the awards were split into two categories, Drama and Musical/Comedy, Chalamet winning over Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) was really the most important indicator here. DiCaprio has felt like the biggest contender to Chalamet, which has also been shown by the few wins DiCaprio has taken at the smaller circuits, but a win last night and at the Critics Choice last week basically puts Chalamet's chances at lock status. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) did get a big surprise win last night in the Drama side of things, but it's hard to see that affecting Chalamet's chances due to it being Moura's first big win all season. DiCaprio, Moura, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) or Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) or Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) seem to be locks for the other nominations, but at this point it's Chalamet's award to lose.
On the other side of things, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) has been just as dominant. She's basically swept the entire season, outside of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) winning her side of the award last night and winning some of the smaller award wins. Buckley has had a great campaign and features an emotional performance in a film that has already become an awards darling. There's really no reason to believe that anyone outside Byrne will be able to contend for the win and even that feels like a long shot. As for the rest of the nominees: Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) feel like guarantees, plus one remaining spot for Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) or Amanda Seyfried (The Testament Of Ann Lee) or even a slim chance for Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue).
KPop Demon Hunters Sweep Incoming
It's a sad year to be an animated film not named KPop Demon Hunters. The film's virality seems to have caught wind with voters, with the film essentially sweeping every single category that it's been nominated for. That not only includes Best Animated Feature, but also Best Original Song. "Golden" has won at basically every turn, from the Globes this week to the Critics Choice last week. Frankly, they've had the best campaign humanly possible - everywhere you look you'll hear the incredibly catchy song playing. Not only that, but a handful of live performances from the main singing trio mean that it has staying power even further than it's summer release date. Past the music being streamed over and over, it serves as ideal representation for many minority communities. It's a marvel in both music, representation and animation, so it's really not hard to see that it seems to be on its way to winning every award in front of it. It felt early on that Zootopia 2 had a chance to dethrone the KPop stars at the Oscars, but at this point it appears unlikely. If Demon Hunters wins Original Song, I see no scenario where it doesn't also win Animated Feature.
Will Sinners Fall Short In Technical Categories?
Since it appears that Sinners is falling short in all of the acting categories, the hope from the film's fans was that it would win as many technical categories as possible. Although early on this seemed possible if not even likely, there have been some bumps in the road. Last night it was able to take home Box Office Achievement and Best Score (Ludwig Göransson), but that was the extent of their wins. Most insiders, including myself, expected to also see a win in Best Screenplay and Best Drama Film. The Golden Globes do not have an award for Cinematography, but it was only last week that Train Dreams won at the Critics Choice awards. Is it time for us to get worried about Sinners falling short on Oscar night? Well, the boring answer is yes and no. To me, they still seem like a lock for wins in Best Score, Casting and Original Screenplay. It also seems to be a high likelihood they'll have a chance in Best Editing, Cinematography, Production, Costume Design and Makeup/Hairstyling. Who knows, maybe they'll be the one to finally dethrone "Golden" with "I Lied To You". Even Coogler could always have an outside chance to take Best Director.
The reality is that they'll definitely not fall short on nominations, but it's starting to become a concern that the wins will be less than expected for the quality of the film. The April release date may finally be catching up to them, as it's always hard to become a huge awards contender being released in the earlier half of the year. It's also just a really competitive year in the acting categories. In a year without Chalamet or Leo, Jordan probably wins Best Actor. The awards shows also historically devalue horror films, which may be happening here. Sinners will have a lasting impact regardless due to the cultural storytelling and box office success, but it's definitely disappointing to see that it may fall short at the Academy Awards.
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